Elevating Performance: CTV Generates 23% Incremental Lift
Introduction
A fast-growing ecommerce marketplace for fan-driven apparel and accessories partnered with Keynes to deepen its understanding of how Connected TV contributes to real-world performance. While CTV had already been delivering strong ROAS, the brand wanted to validate how much additional value the channel was driving beyond what was captured through standard reporting.
To answer this, Keynes executed a structured ghost bidding experiment, designed to measure the causal impact of CTV on conversion behavior.
The Challenge
As the brand expanded its performance marketing efforts, the team sought to understand the true incremental role CTV played in driving conversions. The question wasn’t whether CTV was performing—it already was—but rather:
How many conversions were uniquely driven by CTV exposure?
The brand needed an incrementality approach that would deliver a precise uplift read without requiring major shifts in media allocation or testing across separate geographies.
The Approach
Keynes implemented a ghost bidding incrementality test within the brand’s existing CTV program, giving the team a clean way to isolate incremental lift while preserving natural delivery conditions across its campaigns.
Audience Split
This mirrored real targeting and delivery conditions while establishing a statistically sound control group.
Simulated Impressions for the Ghost Group
For ghost users, artificial impressions were logged to reflect the same cadence of targeting and bidding logic, without showing creative. This created a reliable counterfactual while keeping campaign structure intact.
Measuring Incrementality
By comparing conversion behavior between exposed and ghost users, Keynes was able to quantify the additional conversions driven directly by CTV exposure.
The Results
23%+ Incremental Lift
Exposed users were 23% more likely to convert than those in the ghost group.
The test reached 90% statistical significance, providing a high-confidence read that the lift was directly driven by CTV exposure.
Improved Conversion Efficiency
Exposed users demonstrated:
- Higher conversion likelihood
- Stronger purchase activity
- Clear differences in behavior compared to the ghost group
This confirmed that CTV ads were actively contributing to conversion outcomes, not simply assisting them.
Operationally Simple, No Structural Disruption
Ghost bidding enabled the brand to run a clean incrementality test without pausing regions, shifting budgets across channels, or withholding media. The test ran seamlessly and still produced high-confidence incremental insights.
Proven, Real-World Performance Impact
The uplift demonstrates that Keynes’ CTV strategy is driving incremental conversions that the brand can feel in ROAS outcomes and revenue impact.
CTV is operating as a measurable performance driver—contributing meaningfully to the brand’s bottom line.
Why It Stands Out
This test validates CTV’s measurable contribution to the brand’s growth. With more than 23% incremental lift, the results confirm CTV as a scalable, dependable performance channel. The brand has also seen that CTV-driven purchases carry approximately 13% higher AOV than other channels—meaning the channel drives both more conversions and more valuable customers. Together, these insights strengthen the brand’s confidence in CTV’s long-term value.
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